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Javier Simon http://chinacheatsheets.com Thu, 19 May 2016 21:46:29 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.1.3 Beijing Facing Protest from Hong Kong to Taiwan http://chinacheatsheets.com/beijing-facing-protest-from-hong-kong-to-taiwan/ Thu, 19 May 2016 21:46:29 +0000 http://chinacheatsheets.com/?p=1293 [...]]]> Throughout Hong Kong, there is a sentiment that civil liberties and the city’s autonomy are under attack by Beijing. The embodiment of that fear came in the form of Zhang Dejiang, who visited Hong Kong on Wednesday.

As chairman of China’s National People’s Congress, Zhang oversaw a decision to establish strict policies regarding the screening of candidates for Hong Kong’s top post. That move led to major protests that caught the eyes of the world in 2014. Since then, many pro-Democracy protests have turned violent.

This week, thousands of police officers descended around a hotel and convention center where Zhang was set to speak. Demonstrators were secluded to designated areas blocks away from the scene.

“He must feel fearful and guilty, so he needs such high security and fears any contact with the people,” said Raphael Wong, vice chairman of the League of Social Democrats, in an interview with The New York Times. “He simply couldn’t tolerate any dissent against the Communist Party.”

However, dissent against the Communist Party is spreading throughout Hong Kong and about 445 miles away into Taiwan.

This Friday, the island is set to inaugurate its first female president Tsai Ing-wen. She rose to power largely due to support from a young and disgruntled electorate, which also feared their government was falling deeper into Beijing’s control.

Under the previous leader Ma Ying-jeou, cross-strait economic relations blossomed. Analysts believed Tsai won’t be as open to economic ties with Beijing as her predecessor.

In 2014, protestors tried blocking the passage of a cross-strait trade agreement by occupying Taiwan’s legislature for 23 days. Many of them marched on to Hong Kong where they called for a democratic government in July 2014.

Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a professor at Hong Kong Baptist University, explained the relation to the Times.

“I think it is a clash between two political cultures: authoritarian in China and liberal in Hong Kong and Taiwan,” he said. “Hong Kong is very much on the bridge, resisting the authoritarian political culture in China.”

For many in Hong Kong, that authoritarian culture was undeniable in 2015, when a group of Hong Kong book sellers went missing. They later appeared on China’s state-run television, where they confessed to engaging in a conspiracy to smuggle banned books into China. The captives worked for a book store that sold several titles critical of the Communist Party.

Activists suspected they were kidnapped and coerced into confessing.

One of them, Lee Bo, was picked off the streets of Hong Kong in what many saw as a disgraceful violation of the “One Country, Two Systems” policy that guarantees Hong Kong independence until 2047.

Emily Lau, head of the Democratic Party in Hon Kong’s legislature, told the Times that the situation proved “Hong Kong is going through very dark times.”

Lau and other democratic leaders expressed their concerns during a reception with Zhang on Wednesday. She argued that allowing elections in Hong Kong to be truly open, instead of being contests between a few Beijing-backed candidates, would improve relations and even calm the sentiment for independence.

“I feel like Hong Kong is like Taiwan more than 20 years ago, before we had free elections,” said Sung Chung-hsing, a Taiwanese lawyer, in an interview with the Times. “The young people in Hong Kong have realized the importance of freedom and elections. I hope they can raise their voices and let the mainland government know their feelings.”

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Chinese Fighter Jets Intercept US Plane: Is Beijing Provoking War? http://chinacheatsheets.com/chinese-fighter-jets-intercept-us-plane-is-beijing-provoking-war/ Thu, 19 May 2016 21:27:44 +0000 http://chinacheatsheets.com/?p=1300 [...]]]> Two Chinese fighter jets got dangerously close to a US surveillance aircraft over the disputed South China Sea on Tuesday, according to the Pentagon.

Defense Department spokesperson Lt. Col. Michelle Baldanza told NBC News on Wednesday that two J-11 Shenyang fighter jets came within 50 feet of a Navy EP-3 Orion aircraft.

The latest incident came a week after China scrambled three fighter jets when a US Navy destroyer came within 12 miles of one of China’s largest artificial islands.

China has built a total of 3,000 acres worth of artificial islands in the South China Sea. Some have military-capable airstrips and at least one is loaded with missile launchers. China claims most of the region. Its neighbors including The Philippines also claim parts of this strategic waterway through which trillions of dollars in trade pass each year.

In a Forbes article, geopolitical analyst Tim Daiss called it “one of the most important oil and natural gas transport choke points in the world.”

The US says China’s vast claims threaten freedom of navigation in the region and it often deploys ships close to China’s artificial islands in maneuvers that enrage Beijing.

The US does not recognize China’s claims and it often sends its Navy into the region to uphold freedom of navigation.

A US defense official described the latest move as a “routine mission” in “international airspace.” Nonetheless, Beijing is quick to denounce such acts claiming they violate its security.

“It needs to be pointed out that American aircraft have constantly entered China’s coastal waters conducting reconnaissance, which has posed a serious threat to China’s maritime and air safety,” said Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Hong Lei, at a press briefing Thursday.

Despite China’s well documented outrage at these kinds of maneuvers, Quartz Asia Correspondent Steve Mollman argues that Beijing is actually welcoming them as justification to militarize the South China Sea, and wage war against its enemies, which include US allies.

“All any nation needs to go to war is a good provocation, and China is no exception,” Mollman wrote in a Quartz article this week. “With its sweeping territorial claims, island-building, militarization, patriotic fervor, and prickly rhetoric, Beijing is setting itself up to be repeatedly provoked in the South China Sea. It might even be counting on it.”

China’s Defense Ministry said the latest incident “again proves that China’s construction of defensive facilities on the relevant reefs in the Nansha islands is completely reasonable and totally necessary.”

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Chinese Nuclear Subs Could Stike the US http://chinacheatsheets.com/chinese-nuclear-subs-could-stike-the-us/ Thu, 19 May 2016 21:17:34 +0000 http://chinacheatsheets.com/?p=1298 [...]]]> China may soon deploy its first nuclear-armed submarines pushing Beijing’s fire power to levels that only the United States and Russia can meet or exceed.

China’s Jin-class subs would be armed with ballistic missiles capable of storing nuclear warheads. The Pentagon designates such titans as SSBNs.

“China will probably conduct its first SSBN nuclear deterrence patrol sometime in 2016,” read the Pentagon’s latest report on the Chinese military.

These vessels would give China the capability to launch nuclear attacks from land, sea and air. This triad of nuclear force would also give it an unprecedented level of deterrence that some of its regional rivals can’t afford.

Jeffery Lewis, an expert on nuclear geopolitics, explained the situation in an interview with The Daily Beast.

“The theory is that a diverse array of delivery systems creates survivability by complicating a first strike,” he said.

So, China’s rivals would be reluctant to launch a first strike in fear that they won’t endure retaliation.

China is currently at odds with several of its neighbors, including US allies, over the disputed South China Sea. Beijing claims most of this strategic waterway, which sees billions of dollars in trade pass each year. China has also complicated matters by building artificial islands in the region. Some are equipped with missile launchers and military-capable airstrips.

China’s latest H-6 bombers can launch cruise missiles equipped with nuclear warheads. Mainland China also houses hundreds of silos equipped with long-range rockets that can be fitted with nuclear warheads.

A Jin sub could mount up to 12 JL-2 rockets. Each has a range of 450 miles putting anywhere in the United States within striking distance.

However, some US military officials believe it’s more likely for the US to be pulled into battle against China to defend a Southeast Asian ally rather than through direct conflict with Beijing.

Nonetheless, the US’s nuclear arsenal still would outweigh China’s tirade even if it deploy its SSBNs as planned.

The US possesses about 7,000 nuclear warheads. China reportedly has several hundred. The exact number is perhaps known only by elite Communist Party officials and members of the world’s most sophisticated intelligence agencies. However, it’s unlikely the real number would match that of the US.

China also faces challenges in building and operating SSBNs. China’s project can be traced back to 1981, almost two decades after the US and Russia had their nuclear-armed vessels out at sea. Since then, development has been slowed by quality-control issues.

“While it is clear that the [Chinese navy] is making strides towards correcting these issues, the capabilities of China’s nuclear-powered submarine fleet remain in a process of maturity,” read a report by the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a Washington D.C.-based advocacy group.

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US Admiral Takes Tough Stance on China http://chinacheatsheets.com/us-admiral-takes-tough-stance-on-china/ Sat, 07 May 2016 17:55:09 +0000 http://chinacheatsheets.com/?p=1242 [...]]]> China continues to claim most of the disputed South China Sea, where it has built several artificial islands including some with military capabilities. One man is not too happy about that move. He happens to be in charge of US military operations in the Asia-Pacific region.

Meet Admiral Harry B. Harris Jr., the US military commander who warns that a “provocative and expansionist” China is “clearly militarizing” the South China Sea. He says it’s his job to inform Congress, US allies, and the American people about the Chinese threat.

The unapologetic admiral’s language starkly contrasts the tone of his more cautious commander-in-chief: Barack Obama.

Though not taking an official stance on the territorial dispute between China and its neighbors in the South China Sea, the White House has called on China to avoid military conflict, which could pull in the US to defend its allies.

The South China Sea is a waterway through which trillions of dollars in trade including oil passes each year. Beijing claims most of the region. China has been building artificial islands there complete with facilities like hospitals. Three are equipped with military-capable airstrips. At least one houses Chinese missile launchers.

Harris calls China’s three artificial islands in the archipelago region “military bases.”

The admiral says the biggest risk the US faces now is being pulled into conflict after a clash between China and a Southeast Asian ally.

Neither Beijing nor Washington wants war to break out from a spark at sea, but it’s Harris’s job to consider the possibility and prepare for the worst.

Pentagon officials say such a clash may take place at Scarborough Shoal. China in 2012 snatched this atoll from the Philippines, a US ally. Chinese military commentators say Beijing plans to turn this island, which is only 120 miles away from the Philippine coast, into a fortress.

“In the China piece, we just have to be ready for all outcomes from a position of strength,” Harris told The New York Times. “All outcomes whether it is Scarborough, South China Sea in general, or some cyber attack.”

 

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