China will Top the U.S. as World’s Largest Economy by 2031, Report Says

The United States is expected to lose its spot as the world’s top economy to China by 2031, according to a new report by the U.K.-based Centre for Economics and Business Research.

At the time, the CEBR expects China to rule the world economy with a GDP of $35.26 trillion, while the U.S. stands at No. 2 with a GDP of $33.66 trillion.

The organization says the next 16 years likely will see major shifts in world economies as well as the structures of trade groups and economic organizations.

By 2031, for example, the CEBR expects to see France and Italy leave the prestigious G8 group housing the world’s largest economies. Their places would be taken by South Korea and Brazil.

The United Arab Emirates is expected to join the ranks of the Top 30 economies for the first time by 2031. Asian countries such as Malaysia and the Philippines may also rise onto the list.

One of the most dramatic shifts may be led by India, which is expected to take the No. 3 spot on the globe’s largest economies by 2031. Today, it stands at No. 7. The boost would put it above Japan, Germany and the U.K.

“The world’s most populous nation has made a start in 2015 in catching up with China, with faster economic growth than China for the first time in years,” the CEBR report reads. “But there is still a long way to go, and India is only likely to overtake China at some point in the second half of the 21st century.”

According to CEBR, the next 16 years will see Western Europe as the region with the slowest economic growth.  The 19-country Eurozone has experienced only .2 percent growth in GDP per quarter since 2010. Meanwhile, the U.S. has seen more than 2.1 percent growth during the same period.

The CEBR believes Western Europe will see its share in the global economy fall by more than 40 percent by 2031.

The U.S, however, may spend a longer time than expected as the world’s largest economy thanks to the recent decrease in China’s economic growth.

Last year, the CEBR predicted the U.S. would fall to China in economic might in 2025, but this year made adjustments due to “slower Chinese GDP growth and a weaker currency.”


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