mh-magazine domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /home/customer/www/chinacheatsheets.com/public_html/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6260China is also seeing rampant factory closures, mergers and relocations.
The country continues to suffer from massive income inequality. Thousands have lost their jobs and those who have managed to keep them are seeing pay cuts. Meanwhile, the amount of billionaires in China is exceeding that of the United States in some estimates.
China is seeing a spike in labor unrest. Strikes increased from eight in January 2011 to 503 in a January 2016.
Needless to say, the government is not sure where the economy is heading.
For next year, Premier Li Keqiang projects a growth of between 6.5 percent and 7 percent. This is the first time a Chinese leader has aimed for a range rather than a clear figure. Nonetheless, several analysts say the range is far too optimistic.
According to the News Minute, this high target highlights Chinese leaders’ reliance in Keynesian pump priming.
“They are making big fiscal and monetary decisions to keep the economy growing,” reads one editorial. The deficit will increase from 2.3% to 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) that is now over $11 trillion. This is a huge $330 billion stimulus to keep the economy going. “
Recently, China pumped large sums of money into the market after stocks dived. The same tactic was used when the government bailed out real estate companies as the U.S. had done with banks.
“In both countries, robber barons took risks and walked away with big profits, while taxpayers provided these barons insurance and absorbed private losses,” reads the editorial. “At its essence, China is suffering from a massive transfer of wealth from the many to the few because of corruption and crony capitalism.”
]]>According to the report, China’s richest 1 percent owns about one third of the country’s wealth, while the poorest 25 percent own 1 percent of the country’s wealth.
The data is part of the university’s Institute of Social Science Survey. It was gathered by analyzing 15,000 households in 25 different provinces.
“There’s no doubt that the income gap is getting larger and larger,” said sociology professor Zhou Xiaozheng in an interview with Financial Times. “To put it simply, the poor are getting poorer and the rich are getting richer.”
The Gini Coefficient for China in 2012 was .49, according to the report.
Economists widely use the Gini Coefficient to measure inequality. According to the World Bank, a coefficient of .40 means severe income inequality.
Still, the data may be incomplete due to rampant corruption and unreported income in the country.
A Southwest University of Finance and Economics in Chengdu study put the coefficient at .61 for China in 2010.
A Hurun study released Thursday reports that the number of dollar millionaires in China rose 8 percent during the past year to 3.14 million. The same report states the country is home to 596 dollar billionaires, more than the US.
These revelations could result in wider calls for progressive taxation and social welfare spending.
In the past, the ruling Communist Party has pledged to tackle inequality.
In 2014, Xi Jinping wrote the following in the state-run People’s Daily: “We want to continuously enlarge the pie, while also making sure we divide the pie correctly. Chinese society has long held the value of ‘Don’t worry about the amount, worry that all have the same amount.’”
]]>The plane landed on Jan. 2 on a runway at the Fiery Cross Reef. Foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying confirmed during the weekend that a civilian plane had landed on the runway during a test flight to see if it met “civilian aviation standards.”
The 10,000-foot-long runway is one of three China has been building in contested waters in the last year. Each runway would support long-range bombers, China’s best jet fighters and other aircraft. This would give China a new, militaristic advantage deep in the maritime center of South East Asia.
The South China Sea serves as a strategic waterway through which $5 trillion in ship borne goods passes through each year.
China is at odds over parts of the South China Sea with Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines and Taiwan.
Vietnam responded to the landing by launching formal diplomatic protests and The Philippines said it expects to do the same. Meanwhile in Washington, State Department spokesperson John Kirby said the landing “raises tensions and threatens regional stability.”
While the U.S. does not lay claim to any exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea, it has repeatedly condemned China for threatening regional stability and freedom of navigation through its massive land reclamation.
China has been enraging its neighbors by building artificial islands from seven reefs and atolls in the Spratlys archipelago and claiming virtually all of the South China Sea.
Beijing maintains these islands are being built for civilian purposes such as fishing research and coast guard operations.
In October, The U.S. conducted “freedom of navigation” patrols by sending a guided-missile destroyer near one of China’s artificial islands. American B-52 bombers flew near the islands in November.
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Taiwan’s Cross-Strait Policy Association Poll showed Tsai Ing-wen won the support from 45.2 percent of 1,052 people surveyed. Her main opponent Eric Chu, chairman and candidate for the Nationalists KMT party, received 16.3 percent. These figures show Tsai’s approval rating rose by one percentage point from the last poll in December, while Chu’s support dipped by 5.8 percentage points.
Chu belongs to Taiwan’s ruling party which tends to be pro-status quo, but Tsai has been gaining ground in recent polls as her supporters grow angrier at Taiwan’s growing economic dependence on mainland China.
The relationship between Taiwan’s ruling government and Beijing is particularly important for regional stability and international relations, as China has viewed Taiwan as a renegade province since nationalists fled to the island after being defeated in the Chinese Civil War to Mao Zedong’s Communists.
Taiwan remains in the crosshairs of China’s missiles and Beijing has never ruled out force as a roadway to re-unification.
The DDP maintains Taiwan’s future remains in the hands of its 23 million-strong population, which Beijing considers a call for independence.
The DDP’s rise is largely due to Taiwan’s younger population.
The association’s poll put Tsai’s approval rating at 54 percent for respondents aged between 20 and 34.
Surveys in recent months have shown Tsai is leading with an average double-digit percentage points.
A poll conducted Saturday by the cable television channel TVBS put Tsai’s support at 44 percent or 20 percent above that of Chu’s.
A poll sponsored by the KMT on Monday put Tsai’s support at 39.2 percent or 31.2 percentage points ahead of Chu.
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The 37-metre-high statue is painted gold and it sits on farmland in Tongxu county, Henan Province. The project was made possible by local businessmen who paid nearly 3 million Yuan or $460,000.
Despite its sensitive location, The People’s Daily newspaper reports that some local villagers also donated money to fund its construction, which is ongoing.
Still, the statue drew much criticism online for its location and the large sum of money used to construct it.
Only a crane used to build the statue towers over Mao as he looks upon the countryside, while in a sitting position.
Mao’s leadership is seen by many as a bloody and repressive era in Chinese history. His policies such as the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution saw the deaths of millions through famine and political purges.
Nonetheless, many still view him as a revered figure including President Xi Jinping.
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The institute expects Chinese airlines to see 758 million new passengers in the next two decades bringing their total numbers up to 1.196 billion by 2034. The U.S. is expected to decline to the No. 2 spot with 523 million more people bringing the U.S. cap to about 1.150 billion.
The IATA also expects India to top the U.K. for the No. 3 spot by 2026.
In terms of air-travel market growth by percentage, seven out of the top 10 are expected to be African nations. These are Rwanda, Sierra Leone and the Central African Republic.
The institute also claims that if Cuba and Iran open up to air travel demand, they could see boosts in their share of the air-travel market as well. The IATA predicts Cuba could take on 5 to 13 million additional passengers while the Islamic Republic could see 12 to 44 million more passengers by 2034.
Still, the report doesn’t spell good news across the board. Overall, the IATA has determined that 400 million fewer passengers would take to the skies in 2034 than it had predicted last year.
“There is much work to be done to prepare for the 7 billion passengers expected to take the skies in 2034,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General and CEO. “Economic and political events over the last year have impacted some of the fundamentals for growth. As a result, we expect some 400 million fewer people to be traveling in 2034 than we did at this time last year.”
“Air transport is a critical part of the global economy. And policy-makers should take note of its sensitivity,” Tyler added. “The economic impact of 400 million fewer travelers is significant. Each is a lost opportunity to explore, create social and cultural value, and generate economic and employment opportunities.”
According to the institute, the aviation industry employs 58 million people and contributes $2.4 trillion to the global economy. The industry is expected to grow to 105 million employees and $6 trillion in GDP by 2034.
]]>Now, new disciplinary rules are aiming to crush internal dissent within the party.
These rules already have led to the firing of a party newspaper editor and a senior police officer on the grounds of “improper discussion” of government policy.
Many analysts believe Xi’s quest for complete control and centralization of power may backfire and bring about disaster for the country.
Today, hard-liners are openly praising Xi as moderates bite their tongues before voicing concerns.
Xi is surrounding himself with people who tell him what he wants to hear while ignoring everything else.
“Xi is conceited and refuses to listen to second opinions,” said Willy Wo-lap Lam, an adjunct professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong in an interview with the Washington Post. “He has chosen to live in an isolated space, surrounded by flatterers. He has no idea what is going on in the real world.”
Xi has vowed to pull 70 million people out of poverty by 2020. The plan isn’t really working, but officials in one district feared showing visiting superiors that they were not following the president’s instructions. So, they dressed children in white plastic fertilizer bags “to stand on a hill and appear like sheep,” to give the impression the area was prospering.
Xi is also undermining the benefits of collective government and weakening his own party in his quest for centralization of power.
The new disciplinary policies led to the arrest of prominent party leader Zhao Xinwei, editor of the Xinjaing Daily. His offense: the president didn’t like his commentary on China’s policies in the already troubled Muslim-majority region of Xinjiang.
The deputy police chief in Zhanjiang was dismissed after posting on social media comments critical of the “one party, two systems” rule.
Many also point to foreign-policy blunders that may have been prevented had opposition managed to reach Xi.
They point to such instances as China’s declaration of an air-defense identification zone in the East China Sea in 2012 to further legitimize its territorial claims. That move caused Japan to increase defense spending and update its constitution as to give the military more opportunity to support allies.
In 2014, China placed an oil rig in contested waters claimed by Vietnam. That move infuriated Hanoi and caused it to seek military support from an old foe: the United States.
Some analysts say Xi is ushering back in the dark days of the Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution.
Those times saw tens of millions die through famine or political purges.
Many senior party leaders were killed for simply telling Mao the truth.
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The purge, which some are calling a witch hunt, was sparked by last summer’s stock-market meltdown. Among the targets were some of the financial sector’s biggest investment bankers, brokers and regulators.
“2015 was a year in which many of China’s high profile businesspeople might have agreed that they enjoyed the trappings of power and wealth only at the whim of the authorities,” said the BBC’s China Editor Carrie Gracie.
Still, some were targeted despite their strong support of the ruling Communist Party.
“Why would the government want to target me?… I believe in the future of China. I believe in the Party’s reform policy,” stated Guo Guangchang, often referred to as “China’s Warren Buffet.”
Nonetheless, the chairman of Fosun Group went missing. He was actually held by police for questioning.
As for the reform policy?
China’s “New Normal” policy has taken a beating this year.
“New Normal” refers to China’s intended shift from a high-speed growth economy led by exports to a slower, yet cleaner growth powered by domestic consumption.
During the first half of the year, China’s Foreign Finance Minister Lou Jiwei in a controversial speech warned that China did not have “a lot of time left and the only way forward is reform.”
Soon, it became evident that consumption was not rising fast enough for China to meet its 7 percent growth target.
High speed ageing and a mountain of debt presented yet more challenges.
Some economists believe structural reforms won’t reverse the downward trend, but instead would prevent China from reaching the middle income trap—the point where a country reaches a certain income level and stops growing.
A 2015 report by news organization Caixin warned that one in five promised reforms were on target.
Gracie, the BBC’s China editor, elaborates on this.
“At the start of the year, piecemeal financial sector reforms were in prospect, but stock market meltdown, capital flight and bungled currency depreciation did not help. Nor did the sense that different agencies in government and the Communist Party were in conflict.”
The state-owned sector has also lacked in strengthening the economy overall. Some analysts believe China won’t be able to fix its debt issues without shutting down some State-Owned Enterprises.
The private sector, however, is creating wealth rather than acquiring debt. Its firms account for nearly every new job created in the country, according to the BBC.
“And if China’s economy is going to change into the much-vaunted ‘new normal’, it desperately needs to encourage private enterprise, rather than scare off those cunning and mobile enough to export their capital abroad,” explains Gracie.
]]>At the time, the CEBR expects China to rule the world economy with a GDP of $35.26 trillion, while the U.S. stands at No. 2 with a GDP of $33.66 trillion.
The organization says the next 16 years likely will see major shifts in world economies as well as the structures of trade groups and economic organizations.
By 2031, for example, the CEBR expects to see France and Italy leave the prestigious G8 group housing the world’s largest economies. Their places would be taken by South Korea and Brazil.
The United Arab Emirates is expected to join the ranks of the Top 30 economies for the first time by 2031. Asian countries such as Malaysia and the Philippines may also rise onto the list.
One of the most dramatic shifts may be led by India, which is expected to take the No. 3 spot on the globe’s largest economies by 2031. Today, it stands at No. 7. The boost would put it above Japan, Germany and the U.K.
“The world’s most populous nation has made a start in 2015 in catching up with China, with faster economic growth than China for the first time in years,” the CEBR report reads. “But there is still a long way to go, and India is only likely to overtake China at some point in the second half of the 21st century.”
According to CEBR, the next 16 years will see Western Europe as the region with the slowest economic growth. The 19-country Eurozone has experienced only .2 percent growth in GDP per quarter since 2010. Meanwhile, the U.S. has seen more than 2.1 percent growth during the same period.
The CEBR believes Western Europe will see its share in the global economy fall by more than 40 percent by 2031.
The U.S, however, may spend a longer time than expected as the world’s largest economy thanks to the recent decrease in China’s economic growth.
Last year, the CEBR predicted the U.S. would fall to China in economic might in 2025, but this year made adjustments due to “slower Chinese GDP growth and a weaker currency.”
]]>As the Chinese economy continues to grow, many experts consider Fixed Asset Investment to be a leading driver. Rail FAI, in particular, is projected to bring big profits for China’s railroad infrastructure and equipment makers.
2016 will kick off China’s 13th Five Year Plan, which emphasizes urban rail transit and public-private partnerships.
Urban rail transit is expected to reach average annual investment of 701 billion RMB from 2016 through 2020, according to UBS’ 2016 China Rail Outlook report.
UBS believes the total length of China’s railroads could total 73,000 miles by the end of this year alone. Of this, the group speculates passenger-dedicated, high-speed rail lines would pass 12,427 miles.
Since the 10th FYP, FAI surpassed the government’s estimates causing the USB to surmise Beijing will shoot for higher projections this time around.
Rail investment could also benefit from lines extending outside China’s borders under President Xi Jinping’s “One Belt, One Road.” This would facilitate trade and movement across South East Asia, the Middle East and Europe.
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